Climate Interference in Islamic Egypt
By: Wesley Mariscal
Department: Earth & Climate Sciences
Faculty Advisors: Dr. Alexander Stine, Dr. Erin Bray, and Dr. Francis Ludlow (Trinity College Dublin)
The flood heights of the Nile from 20 AH to 870 AH (640 CE - 1460 CE) were observed to demonstrate how ancient human civilizations respond to climate change. The climate change, in this regard, being the amount that the Nile would flood on any given year, and the response being social unrest resulting in a ruler change. Data was collected from ancient Egyptian historian Ibn Taghri Birdi, and his book Rising Stars: The Kings of Egypt and Cairo. In it, he documented 850 years of flood data, along with detailed historical information surrounding whatever happened in a given year. We found that there is a correlation between changes in leadership and low Nile flood heights. This conclusion can statistically be viewed as significant, as it has a confidence level of 99.99%. This result supports a direct influence of climate change on Egyptian civilization after the Islamic conquest. More specifically, this finding points to the specific connection between climate and socioeconomic life. According to the numbers, a lower Nile flood height in the summer implies a higher chance at a change in leadership, therefore the river itself causes some kind of social unrest. The idea itself seems plausible, as the Nile is the only consistent source of water to provide for both crops and the wellbeing of the people who surround it.